Mumbai- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.6 per cent for 2026-27, while warning that global supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, and weather-related uncertainties could weigh on the economic outlook.
Releasing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) assessment after its three-day meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said quarterly growth is expected to remain steady at 6.6 per cent in Q1, 6.3 per cent in Q2, 6.5 per cent in Q3, and 6.8 per cent in Q4 of FY27.
He noted that India’s manufacturing and services sectors continue to show resilience, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicators reflecting sustained expansion and positive business sentiment. According to him, private consumption—supported by discretionary spending—remains strong, while investment activity has maintained momentum despite cost pressures.
Malhotra also highlighted that merchandise exports recorded robust growth in April 2026 despite higher freight and insurance costs, while services exports continued to perform steadily amid sustained global demand.
On inflation, the RBI projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 5.1 per cent for FY27, with quarterly estimates of 4.2 per cent in Q1, 5.1 per cent in Q2, 5.9 per cent in Q3, and 5.4 per cent in Q4. Core inflation is expected to average 4.7 per cent.
He said inflation has remained below target for now due to limited pass-through of global shocks to domestic prices, but cautioned that pressures could build in the second half of the year, particularly if supply-side disruptions persist.
The RBI Governor also flagged risks from a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon and potential El Niño conditions, which could affect food prices and inflation expectations. He added that while adequate foodgrain stocks and healthy reservoir levels provide some buffer, upside risks to inflation remain.
Malhotra further warned that second-round effects—such as rising wage and price expectations—require close monitoring as global commodity shocks and supply chain issues continue to create uncertainty.
Despite these risks, he said the overall macroeconomic environment remains broadly resilient, with the economy absorbing external shocks while maintaining stable growth momentum.
With inputs from IANS