Washington — India’s economic outlook remains strong even amid rising global uncertainty triggered by tensions in the Middle East, according to International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Speaking during an interaction with international media, Gourinchas noted that India has performed “very, very well” in 2025, with growth estimated at 7.6 per cent for the fiscal year. The momentum is expected to continue, with the IMF projecting a 6.5 per cent growth rate in 2026 — a slight upward revision from earlier forecasts.
He acknowledged that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have pushed up global energy prices, posing challenges for oil-dependent economies like India. However, he said the strong growth momentum built in 2025 is helping offset these external pressures.
Gourinchas also pointed out that improving trade dynamics between India and the United States have helped reduce uncertainty around tariffs, providing additional support to the growth outlook.
At the same time, the IMF expects inflation in India to rise moderately, projecting it at 4.7 per cent in 2026. This increase is likely to be driven by higher global energy costs and a recent uptick in food prices.
While the near-term outlook remains stable, Gourinchas cautioned that India’s reliance on energy imports continues to be a structural vulnerability in a volatile global environment. Fluctuations in oil prices, he said, could pose challenges going forward.
Despite these concerns, he emphasised that India’s growth trajectory aligns well with its long-term potential of around 6.5 per cent, reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
The IMF’s assessment highlights India’s role as a key driver of global growth at a time when many economies are facing slowing expansion and heightened uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices.
With inputs from IANS