New Delhi- The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may not automatically deliver what the United States and Israel have described as “regime change,” diplomatic experts cautioned on Saturday, warning that the developments could unleash severe repercussions for the global economy.
Khamenei was killed in a strike attributed to the United States and Israel, an event being seen as a turning point in Iran’s 46-year Shia-theocratic system. Tehran’s retaliation, experts say, has already sparked instability across large parts of the Middle East.
Speaking to IANS, former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh Veena Sikri described the situation as extremely serious and economically disruptive.
“This is a grave development and a major shock to the world economy. Even Dubai Airport has reportedly been shut, impacting Dubai’s economy. The Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed. This represents a significant upheaval for global trade and energy markets,” she said.
Sikri pointed out that the escalation came despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. “This happened at a time when Oman had brokered talks between the United States and Iran, which were being held in Geneva. Initial feedback suggested progress, with Iran reportedly agreeing to several concessions. However, it now appears those talks may have been a diversion, as Israel seemed determined to strike first, followed by US involvement,” she added.
Former diplomat K.P. Fabian described the operation as a major military success for Washington and Tel Aviv, but questioned whether it would translate into political change within Iran.
“This is undoubtedly a significant military victory for Israel and the United States. But that does not necessarily mean they are any closer to what they term ‘regime change,’ a concept that itself remains ill-defined,” Fabian said.
He further suggested that the strike was likely based on precise intelligence. “Israel appears to have had detailed intelligence—both human and electronic—which enabled it to target and destroy the residence where the Ayatollah, along with his daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter, were present,” he added.
Reflecting on Khamenei’s long rule, former diplomat Mahesh Kumar Sachdev noted that the Iranian leader combined pragmatism with firm ideological control during his decades in power.
“For nearly 36 years, Khamenei pursued a policy that blended realism with theocratic supremacy, carefully balancing multiple forces,” Sachdev said. “He worked to keep the Islamic revolution intact, diversified Iran’s strategic options through negotiations and proxies, and managed the complex interplay between the clergy, political elite, economic power centres and the judiciary. By many measures, he was successful, even though critics often described him as ruthless and unprincipled.”
With inputs from IANS