New Delhi: India’s merchandise exports are expected to maintain their strong momentum in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, with exports projected to rise 17.6 per cent year-on-year to $131.2 billion, according to a report by India Exim Bank.
The projection covers the July-September quarter of FY27 and points to continued strength in India’s external trade despite uncertainty in the global economy.
Non-oil exports are expected to perform even better, with India Exim Bank forecasting a 20.3 per cent increase to $113.8 billion during the quarter. Exports excluding both oil products and gems and jewellery are projected to reach $105.8 billion, representing growth of 20.5 per cent.
The report attributed the positive outlook to a combination of factors, including greater geographical diversification of Indian exports and improved trade opportunities emerging from recent agreements with major trading partners. Strong demand in key overseas markets is also expected to support export growth.
India Exim Bank said the expansion of domestic manufacturing and movements in the exchange rate could provide further support to exporters in the coming months. However, the bank cautioned that geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity prices remain important downside risks.
The bank prepares its quarterly export projections using its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which takes into account a combination of domestic and external economic factors to assess the likely direction of export activity.
The latest forecast follows a strong performance in the first quarter of FY27. India’s merchandise exports touched an all-time quarterly high of $129.6 billion during April-June, compared with $111.6 billion in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. This represented a year-on-year increase of 16.1 per cent.
The figures indicate that India’s export sector has maintained considerable momentum even as monthly trade data has shown fluctuations in the merchandise trade deficit.
In June 2026, India’s merchandise trade deficit stood at $30.4 billion, the highest in five months. However, the deficit was only marginally above the 12-month average of $29.3 billion, suggesting that the June figure remained broadly within the recent trend.
Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada told the Lok Sabha that the government is closely monitoring developments in the country’s trade performance, including movements in the merchandise trade deficit.
The latest export projections come at a time when India is seeking to expand its presence in global markets by diversifying destinations, strengthening manufacturing capacity and entering into new trade arrangements. If the projected growth materialises, the second quarter could mark another strong period for Indian exporters and reinforce the broader momentum seen in the first quarter.
At the same time, exporters will remain exposed to external risks, particularly geopolitical tensions, commodity price swings and changes in global demand. How these factors evolve could determine whether India is able to sustain the current pace of export growth through the remainder of FY27.
With inputs from IANS