New Delhi — Afghanistan, long regarded as the “geographical pivot of history,” is once again living up to that reputation as the spectre of a renewed Cold War looms over the region.
In the 19th century rivalry between the British and Russian empires — famously known as the “Great Game” — Afghanistan served as the strategic buffer between the two. Today, the same region is witnessing fresh geopolitical manoeuvrings involving the US, China, Russia, and Pakistan.
Since the emergence of the Kabul Emirate in 2021, Afghanistan has become the focus of renewed global interest. While China and Russia are cultivating ties with the Taliban regime, the US under Donald Trump sought Pakistan’s cooperation to establish a deep-water American naval base at Pasni Port, designed to counter China’s strategic influence at Gwadar Port, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
For India, developments in the Pakistan-Afghanistan belt warrant close scrutiny. The region has long served as a breeding ground for Jehad-based militancy, historically exploited by Pakistan for cross-border terrorism. Islamabad’s balancing act — maintaining ties with the US, China, and Russia simultaneously — is a geopolitical tightrope that India must monitor carefully.
A History of Resistance and Radicalism
Afghanistan has twice forced superpowers — the Soviet Union and later the United States — to withdraw from its territory through prolonged asymmetric wars.
After the Soviet invasion in 1979, the resistance was initially local, spearheaded by Islamic militant groups under Pakistan’s ISI, including Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM). Soon, MI6 and the CIA joined in, turning Afghanistan into the main front of the Cold War.
When the internal resistance faltered, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto sent the Taliban into Afghanistan in 1993 to restore order. These Taliban fighters, drawn from Deobandi madrasas in Pakistan, followed a hardline interpretation of Islam inspired by the 19th-century Wahhabi movement that had resisted Western colonial influence.
This movement radicalised the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Afghanistan belt, whose effects are visible to this day. Unrest continues in both KP and Baluchistan, fuelled by resentment toward Pakistan’s pro-US military establishment.
From Taliban Rule to U.S. Withdrawal
Backed by Pakistan, the Taliban captured Kabul in 1996, forming the Emirate of Afghanistan. The regime gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden and allowed Al-Qaeda to operate freely — leading to the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent US-led war on terror, which ousted the Taliban in 2001.
The Taliban later regrouped, and under a deal mediated by Pakistan in Doha, the US agreed to withdraw in 2021 — paving the way for the Taliban’s return to power.
Since then, relations between Washington and Kabul have remained strained, as the Taliban continues to resist moderation. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has found a foothold in Afghanistan, with the Taliban agreeing not to criticise China’s treatment of Muslim minorities.
Russia, too, stands alongside China, pursuing its own interests through the Moscow Format Consultations, a diplomatic platform established in 2017 to address Afghan issues.
At the latest meeting on October 7 in Moscow, which included both India and Pakistan (and Afghanistan as a participant for the first time), attendees rejected any foreign military presence in Afghanistan.
Global Realignments and India’s Role
Amid tensions in the Middle East, where the Iran-Israel conflict has drawn in China and Russia on Tehran’s side, the US is attempting to reassert its influence. Former President Trump, positioning himself as a global peacemaker, sought ceasefires in multiple regions, including between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack.
India maintains that the ceasefire was the result of a direct request from Pakistan’s DGMO.
In keeping with its diplomatic stance, India has supported US-led peace efforts in Gaza, aligning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s consistent advocacy for dialogue to resolve global conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war.
India’s Strategic Autonomy
India continues to pursue strategic autonomy, cultivating ties with all major powers while maintaining vigilance against the Sino-Pakistan axis, which remains its primary security concern.
Following China’s collaboration with Pakistan during the Pahalgam confrontation, India recognises the potential for coordinated hostilities and has stepped up its diplomatic and geopolitical engagement to counteract these challenges.
India’s active participation in both BRICS and the Quad, alongside its involvement in Moscow Format talks, reflects a calibrated strategy to maintain regional balance.
Notably, India’s outreach to the Taliban, marked by the visit of Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi on October 10, underscores its intent to deny Pakistan exclusive influence in Kabul. Despite not recognising the Taliban government officially, India extended full diplomatic protocol to Muttaqi, who assured that Afghan soil would not be used for terror activities — a message aimed at Pakistan.
Muttaqi’s visit to Darul Uloom Deoband, the historical centre of Islamic scholarship, symbolised the deep ideological linkages between the Taliban and the subcontinent.
While Pakistan continues to exploit religious affinities with the Taliban, Kabul’s anti-US stance and its tensions with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) complicate Islamabad’s ambitions.
For India, the challenge remains clear — to counter Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan while maintaining its own diplomatic footprint in the evolving regional order.
(The writer is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau)
With inputs from IANS